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Mid-Week Update - 2012-05-09

There were a seasonally adjusted 3.737 million job openings on the final day of March, an increase of 17.2 percent from a year earlier.  But if the number of job openings was growing quickly, the number of people actually hired during the month expanded at a far slower pace:  +1.5 percent.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates 4.356 million people were hired during March, greater than the 4.153 million people who left their jobs. Even if the pace of job creation during March was slower than experienced during the months before, workers appear to be growing more confident in their prospects.  The seasonally adjusted 2.147 million people who voluntarily quit their jobs during March was up 8.5 percent above that of March 2011 while the number of layoffs (a non-seasonally adjusted 1.683 million) was off 0.4 percent. 

Small business owners indicated in a survey by the National Federation of Independent Business that they were slightly more likely to add workers in the coming months.  The index for plans to increase employment rebounded in April to a reading of +5 (up five points from March) while the index for the number of current job openings added two points to +17.  Companies also were more likely to be planning to make capital expenditures, with the index adding growing by three points to +25.  While survey respondents remained pessimistic about near-term economic conditions (gaining three points to -5), they were likely to expect their sales would increase (down two points to +6) and were expecting to increase their prices in the near-future (up two points to +23).  Despite the seemingly improving picture provided by the survey results, the press release was far less cheerful by noting the results simply returned back to February 2011 levels, suggesting "the net gain has been zero" over the past year.

A continuation of the recent surge in demand for federally subsidized college loans and recent rebound in vehicle sales led to the largest month-to-month increase in outstanding consumer credit balances (less mortgages and other real estate-back debt) since August 2000.  Balances increased by $21.4 billion to $2.542 trillion.  Over the past year, these balances have increased by $120.9 billion-the year-to-year percentage gain (+5.0 percent) was the largest since June 2008. Non-revolving credit balances jumped by $16.2 billion to $1.739 trillion, with the federal government as the most likely lender of the increased loan balances. Revolving credit balances expanded for the first time since December, growing by $5.2 billion to $803.7 billion.

Later today, the Census Bureau will report on March wholesale inventories.  Thursday brings several global trade reports:  March international trade and April import/export prices.  On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports on April producer prices. Read about this week's economic data in next Monday morning's edition of AFP EconWatch.