AFP EconWatch Mid-Week Update--February 22, 2012 - Association for Financial Professionals

AFP EconWatch

Mid-Week Update - 2012-02-22

Economic activity continued to build in January, according to the latest reading of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index. The CFNAI , a weighted average of 85 economic data points, lost 32-basis points but remained above a reading of zero for the second consecutive month. Per the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s press release, a reading above zero “indicate above-average” economic growth. The three-month moving average, which smoothes out some of the data series volatility, gained eight-basis points to +0.14. Fifty of the 85 index components made a positive contribution to the headline index, with 48 index components showing month-to-month improvement. The biggest positive contributor: the suddenly improving labor market.

This week features several housing reports; including January existing home sales later today, the December reading of the FHFA House Price Index on Thursday and January new home sales on Friday. Thursday also brings January mass layoffs data while Friday gives us the final February reading of the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Read about this week's data releases in next Monday’s issue of AFP EconWatch.

Measure

Numerical Trend

Commentary

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
January 2012
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Index Seasonally Adjusted

Jan 12	+0.22
Dec 11	+0.54
Jan 11	+0.27

This was the 2^nd straight month in which the index was consistent with “above-average” economic growth. The 3-month moving average increased by 8-basis points to +0.14. 3 of 4 major categories of index components made a positive contribution to the CFNAI: Employment-related indicators (up 7-basis points to +0.35), sales/orders/inventories (up 3-basis points to +0.03) and production/income (down 43-basis points to +0.11). Housing components has a negative contribution of -0.27 (a 3-basis point improvement.).

This Week in Corporate Finance: A Bright Future?The world—at least here in the USA—has been up, up, and away since the release of the employment report back on May 3. Every day seems to bring new highs to the stock market, and the news in both the housing and employment worlds seems to be getting stronger with each data release.
AFP EconWatch: GDP Growth Slow in Q1 2013The pace of economic expansion picked up during the first three months of 2013, but the growth rate in the gross domestic product (GDP) was slower than anticipated.
This Week in Corporate Finance: Lukewarm Outlook?This was another week where the equity markets touched new or multi-year highs, the bond market sold off a bit, and the economic outlook is lukewarm at best. Time will tell if we have finally moved to a period of determining how fast the U.S. economy is growing, rather than asking: is the U.S. economy growing?
AFP EconWatch: Producer Prices Decline A sharp drop in the price of energy goods led to the first decline in producer prices in three months during March.
AFP EconWatch: U.S. Economy StumblesThe U.S. economy created fewer jobs in March than it had in any previous month since last summer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that non-farm payrolls expanded by a seasonally adjusted 88,000 workers last month, the first time the economy failed to create at least 100,000 jobs since it added 87,000 workers last June.

AFP EconWatch

Mid-Week Update - 2012-02-22

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Mid-Week Update - 2012-02-22